Thursday, 28 Nov 2024

Mueller’s redacted report released: Now what?

US President Donald Trump was neither accused of nor charged with a crime by Robert Mueller, but the Special Counsel’s report, the redacted version of which was released on Thursday, does not clear the president of wrongdoing.

This fact contradicts Mr Trump’s claims of complete and total exoneration.

It also ensures that he remains in political jeopardy.

The crucial portion of Mr Mueller’s report relates to the notion of whether Donald Trump obstructed justice.

Mr Mueller writes this: “If we had confidence after a thorough investigation of the facts that the president clearly did not commit obstruction of justice, we would so state.

“Based on the facts and the applicable legal standards, we are unable to reach that judgement.

“Accordingly, while this report does not conclude that the president committed a crime, it also does not exonerate him.

“The evidence we obtained about the president’s actions and intent presents difficult issues that prevent us from conclusively determining that no criminal conduct occurred.”

These are explosive things to put in writing, but there is detail in the report that backs up Mr Mueller’s conclusions.

He states that Mr Trump “engaged in efforts to curtail the special counsel’s investigation and prevent the disclosure of evidence to it, including through public and private contacts with witnesses”.

Later he goes further, writing that “the president engaged in a series of targeted attempts to control the investigation”.

Mr Mueller describes how the commander in chief directed White House lawyer Don McGahn to remove the Special Counsel from office and how he tried to put pressure on then Attorney General Jeff Sessions in a way that was “intended to prevent further investigative scrutiny of the President’s and his campaign’s conduct”.

He also says that the president sought to prevent public disclosure of information about a June 2016 meeting between Russians and campaign officials, and that he used public forums to attack potential witnesses and praise witnesses who declined to cooperate with the government.

The Special Counsel writes that “the president’s efforts to influence the investigation were mostly unsuccessful, but that is largely because the persons who surrounded the president declined to carry out orders or accede to his requests”.

Despite all the White House bluster and spin, this is breathtaking stuff.

So now what?

There are two separate questions.

The first is about whether or not this will hurt the president’s popularity with his supporters.

I think the answer is almost certainly not.

In fact it might even help him with a base that firmly believes Mr Trump has been unfairly targeted in a politically motivated witch hunt.

But the resilient loyalty of his fans will not help the president with the second question, which is about how his opponents in Congress will handle this.

And that is because Special Counsel Robert Mueller armed those opponents with this short paragraph: “The conclusion that Congress may apply the obstruction laws to the president’s corrupt exercise of the powers of office accord with our constitutional system of checks and balances and the principle that no person is above the law.”

And with that Robert Mueller handed the baton to Washington DC, home to a House of Representative controlled by the Democrats and a Senate controlled by the Republicans.

Will Democrats judge that Robert Mueller cracked open the door to impeachment?

Will they choose to push it?

I am sure I am not alone in having a deep sense of foreboding about what is to come – all-out political warfare.

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