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An ‘extremely dangerous’ hurricane that could inundate coastal areas.

As Hurricane Dorian struck the Abaco Islands in the northwestern Bahamas on Sunday, the National Hurricane Center said that the maximum sustained winds around the eye of the “extremely dangerous” storm had reached 185 miles an hour, making it a “catastrophic” storm with “devastating winds.”

At 8 p.m. Eastern time, the storm was moving slowly — just 5 miles an hour — across Great Abaco Island toward Grand Bahama Island. Forecasters said it would continue to lash those islands into Monday. Storm surges of as much as 18 to 23 feet were possible, enough to swamp many low-lying areas of the islands, and as much as 25 inches of rain could fall before the storm passes.

The hurricane center warned that no one should venture outdoors into the eye of the storm.

“The hurricane will move dangerously close to the Florida east coast late Monday through Tuesday night,” the hurricane center said.

A hurricane warning was issued for the Florida coast from near Jupiter to near Titusville, with hurricane or tropical storm watches posted for additional stretches of coast to either side and for Lake Okeechobee. A storm surge warning was posted from Lantana, near Boca Raton, to near Titusville, with watches posted on either side. Storm surge along the Florida coast could reach 4 to 7 feet in places, forecasters said.

Maps: Track Hurricane Dorian’s Path

Maps tracking the hurricane’s path as it makes its way toward Florida, Georgia and the Carolinas.

Hurricane-force winds extend 45 miles outward from the center of the storm, the center said, with tropical storm-force winds as much as 140 miles outward.

The center said on Sunday that there were wind gusts exceeding 220 miles an hour — three times the wind speed to qualify as a hurricane. Officials said the storm was the strongest on record in the Bahamas and one of the most intense in the Atlantic in the last century.

The National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration posted images on Twitter of “stadium effect” — the wall of clouds surrounding the storm’s circular eye — taken from a hurricane tracking aircraft.

‘People are crying’ as the northern Bahamas catch the worst of the storm.

Hurricane Dorian aimed its fury at the northern reaches of the Bahamas archipelago on Sunday, sending residents scrambling to find shelter as they braced for rising waters and torrential rains.

Prime Minister Hubert Minnis said Saturday that 73,000 residents and 21,000 homes would be affected by the storm.

[ Read more about the impact of the storm in the Bahamas. ]

The Bahamas prides itself on withstanding powerful storms, but this hurricane brings greater dangers than most. Meteorologists warned of a storm surge that would raise water levels as much as 18 feet to 23 feet above normal, as well as the possibility of more than two feet of rainfall in some areas. Much of the island nation is low-lying, and some areas could be completely flooded.

“We will pray and hope for the best, but plan for the worst,” Michael Pintard, the Bahamian minister of agriculture, said in a text message on Saturday evening.

Louby Georges, director of international affairs for Human Rights Bahamas, said people on Great Abaco Island, in the direct path of the eye, were growing desperate as the storm bore down on them.

“People are sending voice notes, people are crying,” he said. “You can hear people hollering in the background.”

He said the shelters on the island were full and that many poorer residents had taken refuge in churches in Marsh Harbour. But he was worried that the churches, which were not on official lists of shelters to receive food and water, may run out of supplies.

“My guy at St. Francis Church said there is no drinking water,” Mr. Georges said in a telephone interview from Nassau, the capital. “There are no trained emergency personnel with them.”

There was concern that some would try to brave the storm in homes that could not withstand so powerful a storm. “Some people are saying that they’re not going to go because they have nowhere to go,” Frankie Fleuridor, an activist who works with Haitians living on Great Abaco, said on Saturday. “It’s tough for people in the shantytowns,” he said.

Mr. Fleuridor said that he had rented hotel rooms for the most vulnerable people, but could not afford to do more. “I’m maxed out,” he said.

The storm is expected to turn northward, raking the United States coast.

Forecasters expect the storm to creep nearer to the coast of Florida through Monday and then swing northward, paralleling the mainland coast. Though it may not make landfall all week if it follows that track, its strong winds and heavy rains, storm surge and punishing surf could still have the potential to do major damage in Florida, Georgia and the Carolinas.

The National Hurricane Center posted a hurricane watch on Sunday for the Florida coast from Deerfield Beach to the Brevard-Volusia county line north of Titusville, meaning that hurricane-force winds are expected there within 48 hours. A tropical storm warning extends north from there to Sebastien Inlet, and storm watches were posted for Lake Okeechobee and for the coast south of Deerfield Beach to Golden Beach.

“Heavy rains, capable of producing life-threatening flash floods, are possible,” the center said.

Florida is on edge, hoping the storm will just miss land.

Gov. Ron DeSantis of Florida warned on Sunday that while forecasts now suggested that Hurricane Dorian may veer north offshore, a slight nudge could bring its powerful eye to landfall somewhere along Florida’s Atlantic coast.

“We’ve got to prepare for that eventuality,” Governor DeSantis said, speaking from the state’s emergency operations in Tallahassee, the capital. He was surrounded by a small group of grim-faced public officials.

Even if the storm stays offshore, the state will probably still experience dangerous storm surge and some flooding. At least four counties have begun evacuating coastal communities, with several more expected to follow soon. Mr. DeSantis suspended tolls on a number of major highways to facilitate the movement of coastal residents inland.

Mr. DeSantis sought to put Dorian’s sustained winds of 185 m.p.h in perspective: “That’s significantly stronger than Hurricane Andrew, which reached landfall at 165 m.p.h. It’s significantly stronger than Hurricane Michael, 160 mp.h. South Florida has had one hurricane in our history — the Labor Day Hurricane of 1935 — that reached that level, and that was total destruction. The strength of this storm cannot be underestimated.”

In Orlando, sandbags and cautious optimism

Buddy Dyer, the mayor of Orlando, declared a state of emergency for the city on Sunday afternoon, as the 2 p.m. forecast from the National Hurricane Center showed the city still within the “cone” of places where the storm’s eye may go.

Residents of Orange County had picked up more than 187,000 sandbags by Sunday, which was 67,000 more than were handed out for Hurricane Irma. Jerry Demings, the mayor of Orange County, took that as a sign that people were taking Hurricane Dorian seriously, which he said was vital.

Mr. Demings said he remained “cautiously optimistic” that the storm would spare Orlando the worst of its wrath, but that it is “still a massive storm that is somewhat unpredictable.”

Orange County opened shelters at 8 a.m. Sunday, and about 50 people arrived during the day, according to State Representative Anna Eskamani.

Lisa Simpson grew up on Merritt Island and has evacuated twice, including in 2004 for Hurricane Ivan. She said she just moved into a condo this year in the coastal city of Titusville and doesn’t know how well it will weather the storm, so she planned to head inland to stay with a friend in Orlando. She said she had a week’s worth of clothes packed in her car and was considering leaving Sunday night with her pet Shih Tzu, Gizmo.

She said she was worried about her brother, who was determined to say on Merritt Island and ride out the storm with some friends.

“Dude, this is a 5, don’t mess around with it,” she said she told her brother. “You’re going to be without power for who knows how many days.”

If the storm isn’t too bad, she said, she planned to make a vacation out of her trip. But Ms. Simpson is also prepared in case the storm keeps her and her friend from venturing outside: she bought a bottle of wine.

President Trump’s Mar-a-Lago private club is under a mandatory evacuation order.

One of the Florida counties ordering evacuations on Sunday was Palm Beach County, which ordered the evacuation of residences in low-lying and coastal areas of the county, including the barrier island where Mar-a-Lago, Mr. Trump’s private club and favorite winter destination, is located. The order took effect at 1 p.m. Eastern time and also includes areas with vulnerable types of residential construction, like mobile home parks.

The eastern half of the county is included in a long stretch of the Florida coast now under a hurricane watch, indicating that Hurricane Dorian’s hurricane-force winds are expected within 48 hours.

“If you choose not to evacuate to a shelter, please evacuate miles, not hundreds of miles,” the county said. “With the unpredictable nature of Hurricane Dorian, evacuating north is not recommended.”

Why is damage from the hurricane so difficult to predict with precision?

Experts can see Hurricane Dorian’s compact eye and near-circular symmetry clearly in satellite images, signifying a ferocious storm. What is much harder for them to discern is whether the storm will it be a disaster for the United States?

Computer models on Sunday showed a range of possible tracks Dorian could follow, with landfall in Florida, Georgia or the Carolinas, or nowhere. And if the hurricane does make landfall, its intensity at that point — whether it will still be a Category 5 or substantially weaker — is equally uncertain.

So nearly the entire southeast coast of the United States, from South Florida through the Carolinas, is at risk — but in the end, many of those places may well see little or no impact. How should all the people along this long coastline deal with this confusing, indefinite forecast?

Adam Sobel, a professor at Columbia University and director of the Initiative on Extreme Weather and Climate, explains why meteorologists must speak in probabilities, not certainties, and focus on the worst-case scenarios rather than the best cases.

It comes down to this: It is better to over-warn than to under-warn. An alarm that turns out to have been needless is just an annoyance, but an alarm that was needed but never issued can have deadly consequences.

People are vacationing at Disney World despite storm warnings.

Families arrived in Orlando this weekend carrying Disney-themed suitcases, wearing Mickey Mouse ears and closely monitoring Hurricane Dorian’s path as they plowed ahead with long-planned vacations to Walt Disney World.

The theme park complex is mostly operating normally, though its Blizzard Beach Water Park was closed as a precaution on Sunday.

Cierra and Louis Gosselin, who live in Bermuda, booked their nine-day vacation at Disney World more than seven months ago for their wedding anniversary and were especially excited to visit Galaxy Edge, a new Star Wars-themed section of Disney World that opened on Thursday.

The couple has been keeping a close eye on the latest hurricane models and said they were hopeful Dorian would not have much effect on their visit. But just in case, they rented a car and are ready to evacuate if necessary.

“I think we’re a little less intimidated because we live in Bermuda,” said Ms. Gosselin, an accounting consultant. “We’re more accustomed to the hurricanes, and we know what to do.”

She joked that her biggest fear was that the park’s replica of the Millennium Falcon, the Star Wars spacecraft, would be swept up by the storm.

Daniel and Kristin Russell arrived in Orlando on Saturday from Grand Rapids, Mich., with their 4-year-old daughter, who was particularly excited for the “Mickey’s Not-So-Scary Halloween Party” event.

Mr. Russell said the family had considered canceling, but decided to go ahead with the trip when forecasts began to indicate that the hurricane may not make landfall in Florida.

“We had lots of friends and family that told us it might not be good to go, but we kept watching it, and we don’t think it’s going to be a problem now,” he said.

Some visitors were getting out just in time. Inside the Orlando International Airport, the Magic of Disney store was bustling with people snagging one more souvenir before boarding a plane home. They tried on hats with Minnie Mouse’s signature red and white polka dots, and perused Disney-themed oven mitts, stuffed animals and R2-D2 mugs.

North and South Carolina declare states of emergency.

With forecasters now expecting the storm to move north up the coast before making landfall, the governors of North and South Carolina have declared states of emergency, adding to those already declared in all of Florida and in 12 counties in Georgia.

“North Carolinians should prepare, and listen to local leaders for updates on severe weather. Please take the time now to prepare for possible effects of #Dorian,” Gov. Roy Cooper wrote in a Twitter message Saturday night. Several hours earlier, Gov. Henry McMaster of South Carolina told his state’s residents not to take the storm lightly.

“Given the strength and unpredictability of the storm, we must prepare for every possible scenario,” Mr. McMaster said in a statement. “State assets are being mobilized now and Team South Carolina is working around the clock to be ready, if necessary. We encourage all South Carolinians who may be impacted by Hurricane Dorian to be vigilant and prepare now — there is no reason for delay.”

The National Hurricane Center said some tracking models suggest that the storm may make landfall near Cape Fear, N.C., on Thursday or Friday. Though its winds are expected to have weakened somewhat, the storm could still lash the coastline with winds of up to 80 miles an hour, and could dump as much as 10 inches of rain on coastal areas of North Carolina.

Read more about Hurricane Dorian.

Anticipating Dorian’s movements has been unusually difficult for forecasters.

As a newborn hurricane, Dorian hit the Virgin Islands but largely spared Puerto Rico.

What our photographers are seeing as Florida braces for a major hurricane.

Tell us what you want to know about the storm.

Nicholas Bogel-Burroughs reported from Orlando and Cocoa, Fla., Patricia Mazzei from Miami, and Patrick J. Lyons from New York. Elisabeth Malkin contributed reporting from Mexico City and Timothy Williams from New York.

An earlier version of this briefing misspelled the surname of the prime minister of the Bahamas. He is Hubert Minnis, not Innis.

An earlier version misstated the name of Lisa Simpson’s dog. He is Gizmo, not Gomez.

Nicholas Bogel-Burroughs reports on national news. He is from upstate New York and previously reported in Baltimore, Albany, and Isla Vista, Calif. @nickatnews

Patricia Mazzei is the Miami bureau chief, covering Florida and Puerto Rico. Before joining The Times, she was the political writer for The Miami Herald. She was born and raised in Venezuela, and is bilingual in Spanish. @PatriciaMazzei • Facebook

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