Will the impassioned speech of Greta Thunberg at the United Nations affect Canadian voters?

Will the walk-out of so many students move people to care about the environmental platforms of the various parties?

With this week’s protest and the efforts of the United Nations to raise the profile of the issue in such an emotional way, has the political climate changed in Canada?

Climate change is said to be the challenge of our generation. Nevertheless, progress on curbing emissions has been slow, and the timidity of governments appears to be endemic.

Greening the economy cannot happen overnight and it will create winners and losers. It will require significant changes in the way we go about our daily business. Some workers will transition into green jobs, others will have more difficulty.

If globalization has displaced workers, and created classes of disaffected citizens, we may think that the green revolution will also bring alienation and frustration on the part of some segments of the population. But we have no choice.

There are many shades of green in our political parties.

The Green Party continues to present the most aggressive platform: halting all new fossil fuel development projects, doubling Canada’s emissions reductions targets, with 100 per cent of electricity coming from renewable sources by 2030.

The NDP is catching up on its environmental platform: promising to reduce gas emissions to 450 megatonnes by 2030 (37 per cent lower than our 2017 level) and eliminating subsidies to the fossil-fuel industries.

Reviewing the platforms of both parties is interesting because it illustrates which options could be on the negotiating table in case of a minority government seeking the support of either the NDP or the Greens.

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The Conservatives continue to present a plan that essentially relies on the private sector’s goodwill, as well as tax credits, to reach emission targets. Their opposition to carbon pricing isolates them on the greening spectrum. They appear to be on the wrong side of history on that issue.

The Liberals are attempting to appear more ambitious to catch up to the Green Party and the NDP. They now promise to commit to net-zero emissions by 2050, with five-year milestones. It would not be the first time in history that the Liberal Party campaigns with a progressive agenda that emulates its New Democrat competitors (think about health care or electoral reform).

The Liberals’ issue will be credibility. For climate change-savvy voters, the last five years were a step in the right direction, but too clumsy and too slow. Those voters are far from convinced that they can trust the Liberals (who have to live with the fact that they bought a pipeline).

Many voters, however, may seek reassurance rather than bold and divisive environmental policies as promised by the Greens and the New Democrats. It may be reassuring to vote for a big tent party, with a middle class focus, and a party that is arguably at least trending toward the right side of history on climate change issue, having put a price on carbon. This is the strategy: to isolate the Conservatives, and invite progressives to join forces against them.

This week’s demonstrations show that the issue cannot be ignored by political parties.

Beyond evaluating the different platforms, there are other questions that we should be asking: will we be witnessing a “greenwashing“ of political platforms (when they are advertised as green, but are really ineffective)?  If there is accountability for the budgetary predictions through the Parliamentary Budget Officer, will we need external evaluation of environmental policy through the Environment Commissioner?

We should also reflect on how politicians deal with issues of inter-generational equity, when sacrifices are needed to protect future generations.

Finally, we might consider that it is time to extend the right to vote to young voters who want to be heard on the issue.  Greta Thunberg is 16 years old, speaks at the United Nations, but would not be allowed to vote in Canada. Maybe it is time to expand the franchise to younger voters.

Nathalie Des Rosiers is principal of Massey College at the University of Toronto. She was Liberal MPP for Ottawa-Vanier in the Ontario legislature from 2016 to 2019.

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