Thursday, 25 Apr 2024

UK summer forecast: What is long range summer weather? How long will heatwave last?

Get your sun lotion out and your barbecue tongs ready because this weekend is going to be a scorcher. The Met Office is predicting highs of 30C in the UK on Sunday, two days after the start of the meteorological summer on Friday, June 1. The mercury will soar to 29C in the south of England by Saturday as the jet stream moves northward, although Scotland will only be cooler with highs of 19C. Met Office spokesman Graham Madge said: “The indication is that we could see highs of 28C (82F), isolated highs of around 28C, on Saturday, and the most likely candidate places for those would be places like Norwich, north London, those sorts of areas away from the coast, but in the south-east corner of the UK.

“And on Sunday we could see highs of 29C (84F), even possibly 30C.”

The roasting conditions will see the UK hotter than Barcelona and Ibiza.

But will the heatwave last all summer?

Meteorologists are divided over whether this weekend’s heat is here to stay for the entire duration of summer.

Exacta Weather’s James Madden predicts high pressure will dominate the UK bringing “hot blasts of weather”.

He said: “Early signals are for a much warmer and drier than average month overall for June with the potential for some very warm, or hot blasts of weather.

“Britain is likely to bask in wall-to-wall sunshine for several days in succession on multiple occasions throughout June on current indications.

“High pressure will become the dominant feature as we reach the end of this month and start the meteorological summer.”

But the Met Office is more cautious saying the first half of June “looks to set to stay cool and changeable, with further showers or longer spells of rain, which could be heavy in places, with thunder possible anywhere during this period” in its long-range weather forecast up to June 12.

Temperatures will also “be mainly below normal” particularly in the northwest, but nearer normal in the east and southeast, where it could be warm at times.

But further into the month conditions will become more “settled” and “temperatures will probably be above normal or warm overall for the time of year, with the warmest conditions most likely in the south and southeast” the Met Office added.

Weather models from The Weather Outlook indicate temperatures averaging in the high teens with some highs of 21C in mid July and into August in the south of England but also as far as Scotland.

However, meteorologists at Accuweather are predicting “intense heat” across large areas of Europe.

AccuWeather Meteorologist Tyler Roys said dangerous heatwaves could raise the threat of wildfires as temperatures reach 40C in parts of southern and eastern France from July into early August.

Portugal and Spain could see 43C or above – the UK will not be this hot but drought conditions are still possible.

Mr Roys said: “During these hot spells, temperatures can reach 32 C (90 F) across southern England and the Midlands.”

Accuweather said: “Dry weather will dominate much of the summer across Ireland, southern parts of the United Kingdom, the Low Countries and northern France.

“The dry weather will provide ample opportunities for people to enjoy outdoor activities.”

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