They’ve taken to the streets for months, they’ve been galvanised by a new leader and widespread international support and then they saw the makings of a coup. Finally, they thought, this is it.

It doesn’t feel like that just a day or so later on.

On the streets of Caracas protesters fought running battles with the National Guard, dodging tear gas canisters and bird shot, fired from the ranks of the security forces many here believed were about to turn on the regime of Nicolas Maduro.

We toured the city on motorbikes, avoiding patrols of military intelligence and national police. We followed the trail of thousands of anti-Maduro demonstrators in the west of the city – the heartland of the anti-regime movement.

But in truth the numbers were small. We have witnessed hundreds of thousands eager to demonstrate for change since January, but what was meant to be a Labour Day mass protest simply was not.

Violence has a tendency to put off everyone but the most committed. I have witnessed many protest movements who achieved success because they were prepared to be hurt of even die for the cause.

In recent years, Tunisia and Egypt, embodied that. In recent days in Sudan I witnessed the same zeal. That is not the case here.

The revolutionaries in Caracas are largely well educated and middle class. They despise this government. They have seen their wealth slashed and they have seen the country’s economy collapse. But they still are nowhere near accepting that they may have to risk their lives for change.

On a bridge overlooking the military airport where Juan Guaido, the would be interim president, urged people to take the streets in an early morning coup-lite, protesters threw stones and tried to pressure the National Guard inside.

From behind us more guards, on motorbikes and firing tear gas, moved in to break up the crowd.

Through choking gas we, and hundreds of others, ran to find clear air. Nobody stopped to fight. The cat and mouse tactics of charge and counter charge went on for hours. It never reaches a conclusion other than after a while everyone goes home.

Be under no doubt they protesters are determined and believe that the revolution will succeed.

But there is a sense that they and their leaders lack ideas, lack a big break through.

Throughout my time in Venezuela people have said that they need to take to the streets and stay there, not go home at night. They are certainly right, but it will cost lives for certain.

Away from the crowds I met a senior player within the country’s elite. He knows everyone of importance in the country and he has always been accurate with his analysis.

I asked him what is happening.

He says that there really is a concerted effort amongst the regime to force Maduro out.

“They are fearful that with greater sanctions from the United States and other countries, combined with failing power and water supplies, Venezuela will just collapse and they will go down with it,” he said.

“There are arguments taking place, but it all means that Maduro will go, it is just what will follow that they are discussing.”

I asked him when this could happen.

“It might not,” he said with a smile. “But if it does it could be in days, that is where we are at.”

Other diplomatic sources generally agree with this assessment. None of the scenarios being considered involve Maduro staying in power.

But as it stands, he and his security services, are still very much in charge.

Source: Read Full Article