Sunday, 29 Nov 2020

Can Donald Trump win the 2020 election without Florida?

FLORIDA, with 29 votes, could decide the US presidential 2020 election and with more than 90 per cent of votes counted in the state – Biden and Trump are neck-and-neck.

Florida is the least predictable win for Trump or Biden of the big four states -New York, California, Texas and Florida. New York and California should be easy wins for the Democrats, while Texas is expected to back Trump and the Republicans.

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Can Donald Trump win the election without Florida?

In Florida the stakes are highest for Donald Trump.

No Republican candidate since Calvin Coolidge, who was elected in 1924, has become president without being triumphant in Florida.

In 2016 the Republican firebrand managed to beat Hillary Clinton by two percentage points.

But in 2020 the states 29 votes could be enough to compensate for the smaller states Joe Biden is expected to win.

Trump switched his residency to Palm Beach County, Florida in 2019.

However, the state has been hit badly by coronavirus and the Trump administration has been blamed.

Nearly 100,000 small businesses have shutsince March and a total of 3.5 million Floridians filed for unemployment benefits between March and August 2020.

Can Joe Biden win the election without Florida?

Joe Biden’s more hardline approach to coronavirus and economic support package could win him vital support in Florida.

Biden's approach is aimed at the elderly and the democrat is leading Trump among those aged 65 or older, a group the latter carried in 2016.

Mr Biden said at a community centre: "You're expendable, you're forgettable, you're virtually nobody. That's how he sees seniors. That's how he sees you."

According to FiveThirtyEight Biden has more than a 95 per cent chance of winning the election if he wins Florida.

But if he does not, the chances fall to 40 per cent.

Why is Florida so important?

Florida has voted for the next US president in every election since 1924.

All ballots must be received by the close of polls on the day of the election in order to be counted.

Election officials began counting early votes three weeks ago.

The results of these will be announced as soon as in-person poll stations close, leaving only the day’s results to come.

Results in Florida generally give a good indication of how the election is playing out as results are usually announced around midnight.

Eric Johnson, a political strategy expert from Florida, said: “Florida is always close.

“When you see polls of Biden leading by a very comfortable margin, you have to think Florida will wind up being much closer than that.”

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