Argentina election polls results: HUGE rise for populist Fernandez – Argentina SHOCKWAVES
Conservative Argentine President Mauricio Macri suffered a resounding defeat on Sunday in the primary elections. The primary was instead won by President Macri’s left-wing competitor Albert Fernández. The results of the primary polls sent shockwaves across the country as the first accurate measure of the political sentiment of Argentine came nowhere close to what was predicted in the polls.
Ahead of the election, Alberto Fernández and his running mate and former president Cristina Fernández de Kirchner were predicted to take the lead.
However, the proportion of a lead greatly differs from what came to pass.
On June 25, a Federic Gonzalez poll predicted Mr Fernández to win 41.6 percent to vote compared to a 33.5 percent vote share for President Macri.
Three days later, the gap between the candidates closed, with populist Fernández forecast to win 40.3 percent of the vote, while President Macri attained a predicted 36.2 percent, according to a poll from Synopsis.
On June 29, a Gustavo Cordoba poll predicted Mr Fernández to win 40.5 percent to vote compared to a 32.9 percent vote share for President Macri.
On July 16, the gap between the two leading candidates was at its closest according to a Synopsis poll.
The current President was predicted to win 38.1 percent of the vote, compared to Mr Fernández’s 40.6 percent.
On July 25, just 17 days before the primary election, Mr Fernández was forecast to gain a vote share of 42 percent, compared to 35.9 percent for President Macri.
Three days later, the gap between the two candidatess reduced again with Mr Fernández and Mr Macri forecast to win 38.2 percent and 34.1 percent respectively.
Argentina’s currency plummeted on Monday after the country’s centre-left opposition leader won the primary election.
Alberto Fernández secured 47.4 percent of the vote, compared to President Macri’s 32.3 percent.
In third place was centrist former economy minister Roberto Lavagna with 8.2 percent.
While the remaining candidates all won less than three percent.
The result is seen as a public condemnation and rejection by voters of the harsh austerity measures introduced by President Macri in an effort to stabilise Argentina’s economy.
Mr Macri was hoping to win a second term in office during the presidential poll to be held on October 27 – but analysts say the results from Sunday indicate his chances of beating Mr Fernández are very slim.
What was the reaction to the result?
President Macri said he recognised it was a “bad election” for him and his party and planned to “redouble” his efforts in order to gain the support he needed to win a second term as President in October.
But after his win Mr Fernández celebrated his success and spoke about his commitment to changing the status quo.
He said: “We are confident that Argentina needed to end with this chapter and start another page. I am confident that today Argentines have started to write another story.”
However, the markets were not as confident as the populist leader.
The stronger than expected victory for Mr Fernández triggered a 30 percent drop in the value of the person – a record low against the US dollar on the global money markets.
Argentina is in a recession and currently has one of the highest inflation rates in the world.
The peso lost half of its value against the dollar last year.
Under President Macri’s governance inflation has dropped in recent months from a high of 57.3 percent in May – but Sunday’s results indicate this has not translated into support.
A two day sell off in the pesco has seen it lose more than a quarter of its value – reviving memories of last year’s currency crisis and indicating a lack of investor confidence in the reformist leader.
What will happen next?
With Mr Fernández winning such a high proportion of vote, his odds of winning the October 27 election outright have increased.
If he were to win the same percentage or more again at the election he would win the leading position outright – without the need for a second round of votes.
Under Argentine rules, if a candidate wins at least 45 percent of the vote or gains 40 percent with a 10 percentage point lead, that candidate is declared an outright winner.
If there is no outright winner according to these conditions, a second vote will be held on November 24, pitting the top two candidates against one another.
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