Tuesday, 23 Apr 2024

Labour NIGHTMARE: How victory for Corbyn could see pound PLUNGE ‘significantly’

On Thursday, the UK will cast their votes and decide who will be the next government. Votes will be counted and results released in the early hours of Friday morning. Polls are so far forecasting a small Conservative majority, however, come election day anything could happen. Hamish Muress, Senior Currency Strategist at OFX explained to Express.co.uk what each scenario after the election could mean for British currency.

Labour wins outright

If Labour were to prove the polls wrong and storm to a victory in tomorrow’s election, Jeremy Corbyn’s uncertainty over Brexit could prove detrimental to the pound.

Appearing on BBC Question Time in late November Mr Corbyn revealed his position on Brexit saying: “I will adopt a neutral stance so I can credibly carry out the result.”

Mr Muress said: “A Labour win would bring more uncertainty to the Brexit process, with the pound likely to drop significantly as a result.

“Jeremy Corbyn has said Labour would offer a second referendum on any deal negotiated with the EU, leaving open the possibility of a Brexit reversal.

“The resulting uncertainty would work to undermine the value of the pound.”

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Opposition coalition – e.g. Labour/Lib Dem or Labour/SNP

For a party to achieve a majority in Parliament they must get 326 or more seats.

Should this not happen parties would look to create coalitions, with larger parties seeking support from smaller ones.

If in the off chance an opposition coalition was on the cards, Mr Muress explains how this could cause the pound the plunge.

The Senior Currency Strategist said: “An opposition coalition is likely to cause the pound to drop, because it again brings Brexit into question.

“The opposition parties seek to offer a second referendum, and although many Remainers would support this, it would bring deep short-term uncertainty and sterling weakness.”

Outright Conservative win

In contrast to the dire straits Britons could face if Mr Corbyn were in change, Boris Johnson could bring a Tory boost to the economy.

If the polls ring true and the Conservatives win the most seats, the pound should strengthen.

Mr Muress said: “A Conservative win should see the pound boosted against major currencies including the US dollar, euro and Aussie dollar.

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“A Conservative victory is likely to strengthen the pound considerably, as Brexit uncertainty would disappear provided that Boris Johnson gets enough of a majority to see his deal through Parliament.

“As a rule of thumb, greater political and economic clarity always has a positive impact on the pound’s value.

“That said, one potential difficulty for the pound is Mr Johnson’s insistence that he can do a trade deal with the European Union before the transition period ends in December 2020.

“It took Canada seven years to finalise a trade deal with the EU, so this looks like wishful thinking. Any delays could hit the value of the pound.”

It is Mr Johnson’s “oven-ready” Brexit deal which could see the pound soar after the election.

Speaking about his Brexit deal at the end of October Mr Johnson said: “After 3 and a half years, it was perfectly obvious to me this Parliament is just not going to vote Brexit through, there are too many people opposed to Brexit who want to frustrate it.

“The only thing we can really do now is go to the people, go to the country, lets get this thing done.

“We have an oven ready deal, let’s put it in the microwave, as soon as we get back after the election on 12 December.”

A Conservative coalition

Should Mr Johnson follow in Theresa May’s footsteps and form a coalition with a similarly aligned party, the security around Brexit may cause the pound to increase in value.

Mr Muress explained: “A Conservative coalition would set the scene for Boris Johnson’s Brexit deal being cleared through Parliament.

“As a result, the pound would be likely to jump in value.”

However all is not as clear as it seems, as each party has their own stance on Brexit – and this could cause arguments on how best to proceed.

Mr Muress said: “There is still the potential for disagreements and more uncertainty, so any increase in value would be less significant in this scenario than it would be in a Conservative majority.”

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