Friday, 19 Apr 2024

Covid R rate stays flat despite delay to Freedom Day

England’s R number has remained unchanged from last week, despite Boris Johnson’s decision to delay the lifting of lockdown.

The rate is currently between 1.2 and 1.4, meaning every 10 infected people will go on to infect another 12 to 14 people.

When the figure is above 1, an outbreak can grow exponentially but when it is below 1, it means the virus is in retreat.

The last time England had a range of 1.2 and 1.4 was in October, when the second wave was starting to pick up.

In a promising sign, some the R rate in some parts of the country is now as low as 1.

The country’s daily growth rate of infections was estimated to be between 3% and 6%, which is the same as last week.

It will come as welcome news after Public Health England warned that probable cases of the highly transmissible Delta variant (previously known as the Indian strain), had risen 79% in one week.

Dr Jenny Harries, chief executive of the UK Health Security Agency, said the increase across the UK is being driven by younger age groups, many of whom have now been invited for a vaccination as the jab rollout extends to anyone aged 18 and over.

Hospital cases have also almost doubled, though most of those needing treatment have not had a vaccine.

But infections could now be starting to level off, according to the latest data from Kings College London’s ZOE Covid Symptom Study.

Its figures show that while daily cases had risen by a third, it was still a smaller surge than the previous week when infections had doubled.

The study’s lead scientist, Professor Tim Spector, said: ‘The numbers this week seem to be slowing down, which is good news.

‘Worrying areas with a high number of cases like Scotland, and the North West are starting to level off.

‘I’m predicting based on past experience, that although we may not have reached the peak quite yet, within 2 weeks we will see cases beginning to drop again.’

On Monday the Prime Minister announced that so-called Freedom Day would be pushed back from June 21 until July 19.

It means we will have to wait another four weeks before all limits on social contact are removed and nightclubs are reopened, although the PM did say the 30-person limit on weddings would be lifted.

Johnson warned that more time was needed to tackle rising cases, driven by the Delta variant.

By July 19, the Government hopes to have double-jabbed around two-thirds of the adult population – including all vulnerable people, all frontline health and care workers and everyone over 40.

The Prime Minister has since said he is ‘very confident’ that Freedom Day can go ahead on that date as planned.

Speaking at Kirklees College in Dewsbury, West Yorkshire, he said: ‘I’m very confident that we’ll be able to go through with step four of the road map on the timetable that I’ve set out with treating July 19, as I’ve said, as a terminus date. I think that’s certainly what the data continues to indicate.’

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