Boris Johnson wins back with big numbers – not to fulfil his claim to ‘Get Brexit Done’ but to swiftly move things to the next phase of framing a new EU-UK trade deal.
Early today, after the 27 other EU leaders had closed day one of summit talks in Brussels, there was a final reality that the UK’s departure is now irreversible. The European Union is entering a post-Brexit world with a packed agenda of things which do not involve the United Kingdom.
The leaders, including Taoiseach Leo Varadkar, will discuss the election outcome in detail over lunch. But already this emerging UK election result has already signalled much for Ireland and the EU.
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For Ireland the EU road has forked with our big trading partner and closest ally. We go on – all the while trying to reconcile a relationship which pulls this country in two opposing directions. Two more immediate things will also result.
First is there will be an election in the Republic of Ireland in February or early March. The Brexit excuse to keep the minority Fine Gael coalition in place by Fianna Fáil support is now definitively over.
Second is that the Democratic Unionist Party is surplus to requirements. They must join Sinn Féin in getting over themselves to make power-sharing in Belfast work again after three years of shameful idleness.
And, once the EU-UK draft divorce deal, finally agreed this past October, becomes law in London and Brussels, talks will open on a new trade deal in a post-Brexit world. This has huge implications for Ireland north and south.
It opens a kind of circular situation which is reminiscent of Joseph Heller’s iconic novel ‘Catch 22’. In that epic tale an airman could escape the US wartime air force by establishing insanity. But the rub was that if you were together enough to plead insanity, you were deemed to be sane.
In a similar vein, the EU is ready to give the UK a free trade deal without quotas or tariffs, provided London stays close to Brussels product standards. But, if the UK is to mimic EU rules, why then did they ever bother to do Brexit in the first place?
Every time the UK talks about abandoning EU standards, they risk being penalised by quotas and tariffs for trade with their nearest and biggest trade partner. That would be really bad news for Ireland which does a cumulative east-west trade worth €1.5bn per week. It’s even worse news for Northern Ireland business where seamless north-south trade depends on those EU standards.
A tough few years beckon. You can forget Johnson’s campaign claims that a new EU-UK trade deal can be done by December 2020. Trade deals take years to put together – the EU-Canada trade deal took seven years.
Right enough, the man in the gap, the new EU Trade Commissioner Phil Hogan, has acknowledged the UK starts talks with the EU after 46 years of membership.
So, he is suggesting things should go more quickly – but nobody believes it can be done in the 11 months, January-December 2020. Mr Hogan must act for all of the EU in this next phase – but he does know Ireland’s key concerns in a way no non-Irish commissioner could.
It will need a minimum of two more years, taking us to late 2022. Watch for a deadline of next July when the UK must seek any extension of the no-change transition regime which otherwise automatically expires at end of 2020.
There is provision in the EU-UK divorce deal for a one or two-year prolongation but it is possible a longer period could be agreed. That should happen.
The worrying thing for Ireland is the UK has a serious lack of seasoned trade negotiators. There are many people in the Brussels machine who are veterans of big negotiations like the Canada deal and a more recent EU-Japan deal.
The EU has been doing global trade for all member states for decades.
But there is one benefit from this vote outcome signalled by Taoiseach Leo Varadkar earlier yesterday. It is that for the first time since June 24, 2016, Ireland now knows what it is facing – for good or ill.
The challenge has not changed – it is still about minimising Brexit harm for all of Ireland. But from now on it must also be about maximising advantages – be they ever so unlikely at first view.
Now that we know the road ahead it is time to face into it for good or ill.
Source: Read Full Article
Home » Analysis & Comment » John Downing: 'Brexit reality bites – but at least for the first time in years we know the road ahead'
John Downing: 'Brexit reality bites – but at least for the first time in years we know the road ahead'
Boris Johnson wins back with big numbers – not to fulfil his claim to ‘Get Brexit Done’ but to swiftly move things to the next phase of framing a new EU-UK trade deal.
Early today, after the 27 other EU leaders had closed day one of summit talks in Brussels, there was a final reality that the UK’s departure is now irreversible. The European Union is entering a post-Brexit world with a packed agenda of things which do not involve the United Kingdom.
The leaders, including Taoiseach Leo Varadkar, will discuss the election outcome in detail over lunch. But already this emerging UK election result has already signalled much for Ireland and the EU.
Please log in or register with Independent.ie for free access to this article.
Log In
New to Independent.ie? Create an account
For Ireland the EU road has forked with our big trading partner and closest ally. We go on – all the while trying to reconcile a relationship which pulls this country in two opposing directions. Two more immediate things will also result.
First is there will be an election in the Republic of Ireland in February or early March. The Brexit excuse to keep the minority Fine Gael coalition in place by Fianna Fáil support is now definitively over.
Second is that the Democratic Unionist Party is surplus to requirements. They must join Sinn Féin in getting over themselves to make power-sharing in Belfast work again after three years of shameful idleness.
And, once the EU-UK draft divorce deal, finally agreed this past October, becomes law in London and Brussels, talks will open on a new trade deal in a post-Brexit world. This has huge implications for Ireland north and south.
It opens a kind of circular situation which is reminiscent of Joseph Heller’s iconic novel ‘Catch 22’. In that epic tale an airman could escape the US wartime air force by establishing insanity. But the rub was that if you were together enough to plead insanity, you were deemed to be sane.
In a similar vein, the EU is ready to give the UK a free trade deal without quotas or tariffs, provided London stays close to Brussels product standards. But, if the UK is to mimic EU rules, why then did they ever bother to do Brexit in the first place?
Every time the UK talks about abandoning EU standards, they risk being penalised by quotas and tariffs for trade with their nearest and biggest trade partner. That would be really bad news for Ireland which does a cumulative east-west trade worth €1.5bn per week. It’s even worse news for Northern Ireland business where seamless north-south trade depends on those EU standards.
A tough few years beckon. You can forget Johnson’s campaign claims that a new EU-UK trade deal can be done by December 2020. Trade deals take years to put together – the EU-Canada trade deal took seven years.
Right enough, the man in the gap, the new EU Trade Commissioner Phil Hogan, has acknowledged the UK starts talks with the EU after 46 years of membership.
So, he is suggesting things should go more quickly – but nobody believes it can be done in the 11 months, January-December 2020. Mr Hogan must act for all of the EU in this next phase – but he does know Ireland’s key concerns in a way no non-Irish commissioner could.
It will need a minimum of two more years, taking us to late 2022. Watch for a deadline of next July when the UK must seek any extension of the no-change transition regime which otherwise automatically expires at end of 2020.
There is provision in the EU-UK divorce deal for a one or two-year prolongation but it is possible a longer period could be agreed. That should happen.
The worrying thing for Ireland is the UK has a serious lack of seasoned trade negotiators. There are many people in the Brussels machine who are veterans of big negotiations like the Canada deal and a more recent EU-Japan deal.
The EU has been doing global trade for all member states for decades.
But there is one benefit from this vote outcome signalled by Taoiseach Leo Varadkar earlier yesterday. It is that for the first time since June 24, 2016, Ireland now knows what it is facing – for good or ill.
The challenge has not changed – it is still about minimising Brexit harm for all of Ireland. But from now on it must also be about maximising advantages – be they ever so unlikely at first view.
Now that we know the road ahead it is time to face into it for good or ill.
Source: Read Full Article