Before the UK general election was even called, Taoiseach Leo Varadkar predicted that Boris Johnson would win if he campaigned on the new Brexit deal. The remarks were made at a private Fine Gael meeting in October and look set to be borne out.
The received wisdom as we head into the last four days of campaigning across the water is that Mr Johnson is on course for a Conservative majority.
This will allow him to “get Brexit done” as he has promised ad nauseam and if he is victorious, suddenly the UK’s departure from the EU is looming large again on January 31.
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Both Mr Varadkar and Fianna Fáil leader Micheál Martin have cited the continuing uncertainty of Brexit as why an election should not take place here until late spring.
But if Mr Johnson wins power and can get Brexit over the line in the first month there will be certainty – at least for a time – and a window of opportunity for an early election will open up.
In recent days, Mr Varadkar deflected questions on what will happen here if the Brexit Withdrawal Agreement is approved by a new Conservative government.
He insisted the outcome of Thursday’s election is not yet known and – while not making any predictions on this occasion – outlined three scenarios.
The first is a majority for Mr Johnson and the ratification of the Brexit deal.
The second is a different government led by Labour’s Jeremy Corbyn which may seek a further extension to renegotiate the deal and another referendum. The third is a hung parliament and Mr Varadkar admitted: “I don’t know what that would mean.”
Mr Varadkar argued that the reasons for not having an early election here “are still as strong as they were when I decided a few weeks ago… not to call one”. He insisted “it wasn’t in the interest of the country to do so”, and added: “I would ask members of the Opposition to bear that in mind.”
That plea was likely to fall on deaf ears even if Mr Johnson doesn’t win the election.
The chances of it being listened to if there is closure on Brexit next month are slim and none.
The Dáil numbers have tightened since last week’s no-confidence motion in the Housing Minister. That’s due to Fine Gael TD Dara Murphy’s departure and Fianna Fáil TD John McGuinness’s threat to support any future vote of no confidence in the Government should one be tabled.
The Opposition scents blood and the chances of Sinn Féin or another grouping tabling a no-confidence motion during the peak of the annual trolley crisis is high. The vast majority of Fianna Fáil TDs may still sit on their hands and abstain, but even this won’t guarantee the numbers. Non-aligned Independents who have backed the Government may baulk at doing so as an election approaches.
A Boris victory in this week’s election make an early poll here a virtual certainty.
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Home » Analysis & Comment » Cormac McQuinn: 'Victory for Boris will make early election here a virtual certainty'
Cormac McQuinn: 'Victory for Boris will make early election here a virtual certainty'
Before the UK general election was even called, Taoiseach Leo Varadkar predicted that Boris Johnson would win if he campaigned on the new Brexit deal. The remarks were made at a private Fine Gael meeting in October and look set to be borne out.
The received wisdom as we head into the last four days of campaigning across the water is that Mr Johnson is on course for a Conservative majority.
This will allow him to “get Brexit done” as he has promised ad nauseam and if he is victorious, suddenly the UK’s departure from the EU is looming large again on January 31.
Please log in or register with Independent.ie for free access to this article.
Log In
New to Independent.ie? Create an account
Both Mr Varadkar and Fianna Fáil leader Micheál Martin have cited the continuing uncertainty of Brexit as why an election should not take place here until late spring.
But if Mr Johnson wins power and can get Brexit over the line in the first month there will be certainty – at least for a time – and a window of opportunity for an early election will open up.
In recent days, Mr Varadkar deflected questions on what will happen here if the Brexit Withdrawal Agreement is approved by a new Conservative government.
He insisted the outcome of Thursday’s election is not yet known and – while not making any predictions on this occasion – outlined three scenarios.
The first is a majority for Mr Johnson and the ratification of the Brexit deal.
The second is a different government led by Labour’s Jeremy Corbyn which may seek a further extension to renegotiate the deal and another referendum. The third is a hung parliament and Mr Varadkar admitted: “I don’t know what that would mean.”
Mr Varadkar argued that the reasons for not having an early election here “are still as strong as they were when I decided a few weeks ago… not to call one”. He insisted “it wasn’t in the interest of the country to do so”, and added: “I would ask members of the Opposition to bear that in mind.”
That plea was likely to fall on deaf ears even if Mr Johnson doesn’t win the election.
The chances of it being listened to if there is closure on Brexit next month are slim and none.
The Dáil numbers have tightened since last week’s no-confidence motion in the Housing Minister. That’s due to Fine Gael TD Dara Murphy’s departure and Fianna Fáil TD John McGuinness’s threat to support any future vote of no confidence in the Government should one be tabled.
The Opposition scents blood and the chances of Sinn Féin or another grouping tabling a no-confidence motion during the peak of the annual trolley crisis is high. The vast majority of Fianna Fáil TDs may still sit on their hands and abstain, but even this won’t guarantee the numbers. Non-aligned Independents who have backed the Government may baulk at doing so as an election approaches.
A Boris victory in this week’s election make an early poll here a virtual certainty.
Source: Read Full Article