NEW YORK • With early signs that the coronavirus outbreak is plateauing in New York and other hot spots, some US health officials say the pandemic may kill fewer Americans than recent projections, while racial disparities in the death toll have started to emerge.

US Surgeon-General Jerome Adams yesterday said he concurred with the director of the Centres for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) that some research models had projected death totals that may prove too high, though neither would offer an alternate estimate.

The authorities have championed “social distancing” and other mitigation policies, saying they were having a positive effect in fighting the spread of the pathogen in the United States but warned against complacency.

More than 90 per cent of Americans are under stay-at-home orders issued by state governors.

A day after the governors of New York, New Jersey and Louisiana cited data that offered a glimmer of hope, New York City Mayor Bill de Blasio said it was too early to declare that a corner had been turned in the fight against the coronavirus, but he pointed to some encouraging developments.

“I can say in the last couple of days, something is starting to change. We don’t know if it will be sustained but it is meaningful now,” Mr de Blasio told a news conference yesterday.

New York Governor Andrew Cuomo said yesterday that 731 more people had died in the state, the largest single-day increase since the crisis began, bringing the death toll there to 5,489.

The White House coronavirus task force projected a death toll of 100,000 to 240,000 a week ago, saying that containing the number of deaths to that range was possible if strict social distancing measures were respected, implying it could go even higher.

Dr Adams yesterday told ABC’s Good Morning America that he was encouraged by recent data showing a possible “flattening” of the outbreak in some areas, referring to the shape of the curve when deaths are shown on a graph.

Asked if he believed the death toll would come in below the dire White House task force projection, he said: “That’s absolutely my expectation.”

“I feel a lot more optimistic, again, because I’m seeing mitigation work,” he said, adding that he agreed with CDC director Robert Redfield that deaths could fall short of the totals that some computer models showed.

SOCIAL DISTANCING EFFECTIVE

If we just social distance, we will see this virus and this outbreak basically decline, decline, decline.

CDC DIRECTOR ROBERT REDFIELD

Early data from US states shows African Americans are more likely to die from Covid-19, highlighting longstanding disparities in health and inequalities in access to medical care, experts said.

“We know that blacks are more likely to have diabetes, heart disease, lung disease. And I have shared myself, personally, that I have high blood pressure,” Dr Adams, who is black, told the CBS programme This Morning.

Data from Chicago officials on Monday showed that black residents make up 52 per cent of coronavirus infections and 72 per cent of deaths from Covid-19.

Louisiana Governor John Bel Edwards on Monday said more than 70 per cent of those who have died of the coronavirus in his state were African Americans. “Obviously this is a big disparity,” he added.

Mr de Blasio has cited some signs of progress in the most populous US city. “The number of people showing up in our hospitals who need a ventilator – that situation has improved a bit in recent days.” That was giving the authorities more time to acquire more ventilators, Mr de Blasio added. “For the first time in many days, we did not see a major increase in the number of ventilators needed.”

The coronavirus death toll in the US has surpassed 11,000, and confirmed cases have topped 368,000.

President Donald Trump, who previously said the coronavirus would miraculously disappear, responded to the recent White House projection by saying any death toll less than 100,000 would be considered a success.

Mr Redfield of the CDC on Monday told KVOI radio in Tucson, Arizona, that social distancing of the type ordered by nearly all state governors was effective.

“If we just social distance, we will see this virus and this outbreak basically decline, decline, decline. And I think that’s what you’re seeing,” Mr Redfield said.

A research model from the University of Washington – one of several cited by top health authorities – forecasts 81,766 coronavirus fatalities in the US by Aug 4, down about 12,000 from a weekend projection.

Meanwhile, hospitals have reported shortages of personal protective equipment while patients agonise alone, prohibited from receiving guests.

REUTERS

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