ALBANY, N.Y. — Republicans in New York probably had hoped the worst was over.

In 2018, the party suffered its most devastating electoral cycle in recent memory, as Democrats rode a fervent anti-Trump sentiment to capture eight seats — and the majority — in the State Senate. They also won every statewide office, including a third term for Gov. Andrew M. Cuomo.

This year, Republicans signaled their willingness to change — electing a young new state party chairman and promising to thwart “the corrupt, socialist agenda permeating the Democrat Party in New York.”

That fight is off to a rough start.

On Wednesday, State Senator Joseph E. Robach, who represents a district in the Rochester area, became the fourth Republican senator in two weeks to announce plans to not seek re-election in 2020 — joining a rash of other Republican senators who have left the chamber or decided to run for other public offices.

The losses of Mr. Robach, 61, and another longtime state senator, Elizabeth Little, 79, are particularly acute for the Republicans because of their extended tenure; combined, the two have served more than 50 years in the State Legislature.

And without the power of incumbency, Republicans may be hard pressed to keep those seats.

Their exit mirrors a situation playing out in Washington, where a wave of departures of House Republicans reflects the party’s pessimism about its diminished influence and its chances to win back the House in 2020.

That dynamic is also at play in the New York State Senate, a onetime Republican stronghold that is now controlled by the Democrats, 40 to 23.

“You have members that are used to being in majority party, and used to driving the policy discussion,” said Nick Langworthy, who became the New York State Republican Party chairman in July. “They know, in a 40-to-23 situation, that they are not going to have many bills that are going to be passed.”

Mr. Langworthy said the party planned to recruit “young, aggressive” candidates to run in opposition to new progressive policies aimed at ending cash bail and paying for public financing of campaigns. He said he believed such arguments would win the day, especially in northern and western New York, arguing that the Democrats are leading a “totalitarian regime” and that New Yorkers want a check on their power.

Republican fortunes in New York — already challenged by the sheer number of Democrats in a deep blue state — now must combat the unpopularity of President Trump, particularly in swing districts in the New York City suburbs.

In 2018, the so-called blue wave helped Democrats capture four Republican seats on Long Island, as well as in several upstate districts. It has also affected fund-raising for both parties: According to its most recent campaign filing, the Senate Republicans’ campaign committee had just $300,000 on hand, a far cry from the $1.5 million it had just a year ago.

Democratic officials in the State Senate say that they have raised some $4 million this year, and expected to have about $3 million of that on hand when they formally declare their finances in January.

All these advantages, combined with the departures of the incumbent Republican senators, may help Democrats win a supermajority in the State Senate. The magic number is 42 seats; hitting that mark would give Senate leaders the ability to override vetoes by Mr. Cuomo, a longtime centrist who has often been at odds with the progressive flank of his party. (Mr. Cuomo insists that he is a true progressive, declaring earlier this year that, “I am the left.”)

Given the supermajority already in place in the State Assembly, the Legislature could try to claim much more influence in shaping the state’s $175 billion budget, a process in which governors — particularly Mr. Cuomo — have long had an outsize presence.

David Friedfel, director of state studies at the Citizens Budget Commission, said such a majority could also give the Legislature a bigger say in dictating social policy often entrenched in the budget. He noted that Mr. Cuomo vetoes dozens of bills each year. “They could go above and around the governor to a certain extent,” he said.

Senator Andrea Stewart-Cousins, the Senate majority leader, played down any potential conflict with Mr. Cuomo — “I don’t see why more Democrats would pose a problem for the governor,” she said on Monday — while acknowledging she covets the Assembly’s supermajority.

“They have a veto-proof majority,” she said. “Why can’t we?”

Of the various districts where Republican senators are not seeking re-election, the best hope for Democrats is the Hudson Valley seat being vacated by George A. Amedore Jr., a businessman who was first elected to the Senate in 2014.

His district, the 46th, has nearly 20,000 more Democrats than Republicans, and already has a prominent Democratic candidate: Michelle Hinchey, the daughter of a former congressman, Maurice Hinchey. Mr. Amedore said that his decision to forgo a fourth term was not politically motivated.

“I’m very confident that I would win the Senate seat again, regardless of what’s going on around the nation or at the Capitol,” he said.

Republicans seemingly have a better chance to retain seats in the 50th Senate District in Central New York, where Senator Robert Antonacci will vacate his seat at year’s end after having recently been elected a state judge, and the 61st District, where Senator Michael Ranzenhofer, 65, will not seek his re-election in western New York. Both districts are usually reliably Republican areas where Democrats nonetheless waged competitive campaigns in 2018.

Mr. Robach won re-election fairly easily in 2018, and Mr. Langworthy predicted that other Republicans would be helped in 2020 by members of Mr. Trump’s base. “The presidential election will bring out a lot of Republican votes,” he said.

That election could also affect a contest in the 45th District in northern New York, where Senator Little is retiring. Her district covers much of the same territory as Representative Elise Stefanik, whose strident support of Mr. Trump has made her a target of congressional Democrats.

Like many of the other Republicans leaving Albany, Ms. Little insisted that her decision to retire was a personal choice, not a repudiation of her party.

“I said I’d never be there when I was 80,” Ms. Little said. “And I’ll be 80 in September.”

The Senate minority leader, Senator John J. Flanagan of Long Island, had been largely quiet on the issue of retirements in recent weeks. But in remarks to reporters and a radio interview at the State Capitol on Wednesday, Mr. Flanagan acknowledged Republican challenges, saying he was “spending every day on the phone” trying to recruit candidates. Still, he argued that Democrats were vulnerable for a number of reasons, including a looming multibillion-dollar budget gap and the suggestion that some party leaders want to seek higher taxes.

“They are going to have to defend the status quo,” he said, adding, “This is what you get with one-party rule.”

Some Republican consultants say that the party’s best hope in the short-term would be to win a statewide race — such as governor, attorney general or comptroller — something that could be sold to voters as a check on unlimited Democratic power. They cite moderate Republicans who have won in Democratic states, like Gov. Charlie Baker in Massachusetts and Gov. Larry Hogan in Maryland, as examples.

“Let the Democrats be Democrats,” said William F. B. O’Reilly, a Republican consultant. “And let them pay the price for it.”

But Republicans haven’t won a statewide contest since 2002, when George E. Pataki won a third term as governor. And Mr. Langworthy acknowledged that more retirements in the Senate may be in the offing.

“I knew how hard it would be to go rebuild what we have lost,” he said, noting donors who once funded Republican causes have decided to back Democrats. “It’s not lost on me that this is a very hard job.”

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