Friday, 29 Mar 2024

Indicative votes explained – all 16 MPs’ options for Brexit and how they’ll work

MPs have seized control of Brexit from Theresa May – and will now vote on options to "test the will of Parliament".

They made the decision in a historic vote on Monday night, upturning the convention that the Prime Minister decides how time is split up in the House of Commons.

MPs defeated the PM 329-302 to take control of the agenda tomorrow, and use it to stage the so-called "indicative votes".

Options could range from a customs union to No Deal Brexit on one hand, or revoking Article 50 on the other.

However, Theresa May has said she could still ignore MPs' choice and is refusing to give the process a "blank cheque".

So how will indicative votes work and what are the options? Here is what you need to know.

What are indicative votes?

Indicative votes are a process by which MPs choose their favoured options on Brexit from a multiple-choice list.

The idea is to finally work out what Parliament might vote for, and not just what it might vote against.

Theresa May's Brexit deal has already been voted down twice, by 230 votes and by 149 votes respectively.

How will they work?

MPs had until 7pm on Tuesday to submit alternative options (see below) for Brexit.

At 3pm on Wednesday, Speaker John Bercow will then select a whole string of options for a vote. There'll be a debate culminating in a vote at 7pm on Wednesday.

MPs will troop into a room – probably the wood-panelled No Division Lobby next to the Commons chamber – and be handed a single ballot paper each containing all the options.

Normally these slips would be coloured pink, but a different colour may be used to avoid confusion.

A Parliamentary source joked it will be "whichever we've greatest stocks of", but not vellum, adding: "No goats will be harmed!"

Each ballot paper will contain a list of the options and two boxes next to each one – yes and no. MPs can tick either box for each option, or no box at all.

MPs can choose as many 'yes' and 'no' options as they like and will have half an hour to vote.

There will probably will be extra Commons staff on hand to count the unusual style vote.

Normally MPs troop through the lobbies in person and know who's voting with them. This system will be used because it avoids MPs being swung by the sequence in which they vote.

Commons Speaker John Bercow is due to announce the result in the chamber at around 8.30pm to 9.30pm on Wednesday.

The number of votes for and against each option will be announced, and a full breakdown of MPs voting for each one will be available on the House of Commons website.

What are the 16 options?

MPs have tabled 16 options for indicative votes, which will be narrowed down by the House of Commons Speaker John Bercow. Theresa May's plan is not among them.

A second EU referendum to 'confirm' any deal

Some Remainers argue the public now has a clearer picture of Brexit and so should be asked again.

A million marched in London in favour but others are bitterly opposed.

The motion drawn up by Labour MPs Peter Kyle and Phil Wilson and tabled by former foreign secretary Dame Margaret Beckett is very specific.

It would require a public vote to confirm any Brexit deal passed by Parliament before its ratification.

It has the backing of scores of MPs across the House. Mr Kyle told the BBC Labour MPs would be ordered to back it. He said: Jeremy Corbyn "will order MPs to vote for this."

Labour's plan for a softer Brexit

Labour has tabled a motion proposing its plan for a close economic relationship with the EU.

The plan includes a comprehensive customs union, with a UK say on future trade deals.

There's also close alignment with the single market; matching new EU rights and protections; participation in EU agencies and funding programmes; and agreement on future security arrangements, including access to the European Arrest Warrant.

We've seen this plan before and it's been voted down before.

Common market 2.0

This is the leading 'soft Brexit' plan – proposing UK membership of the European Free Trade Association and European Economic Area.

This would commit us to free movement of people through continued participation in the single market, and a "comprehensive customs arrangement".

It's been tabled by Conservatives Nick Boles, Robert Halfon and Andrew Percy and Labour's Stephen Kinnock, Lucy Powell and Diana Johnson.

The scheme would remain in place until a wider trade deal which guarantees frictionless movement of goods and an open border in Ireland.

Customs union

This motion would force the government to negotiate a "permanent and comprehensive UK-wide customs union with the EU" in any Brexit deal.

Tabled by veteran Conservative Europhile Ken Clarke, backed by Labour's Yvette Cooper, Helen Goodman and chair of the Commons Exiting the EU Committee Hilary Benn and Tory former ministers Sir Oliver Letwin and Sarah Newton.

It's a "softer" Brexit that would solve the Northern Ireland border issue – but Mrs May is opposed as it goes against the 2017 Tory manifesto.

Malthouse compromise Plan A

This is the big Tory backup plan, favoured by Brexiteers and some Remainers, but others brand it a hopeless unicorn that the EU will never accept.

The cross-party proposal calls for Theresa May's deal to be implemented – yet with the controversial "backstop" for the Irish border replaced by alternative arrangements.

It's backed by Conservatives from both the Leave and Remain wings of the party, including Nicky Morgan, Jacob Rees-Mogg, Damian Green, Steve Baker and Sir Graham Brady, as well as the DUP's Nigel Dodds and Labour Brexiteer Kate Hoey.

Revoke Article 50

This is the big plan to abandon Brexit completely and retain EU membership under existing terms.

It would prompt widespread feelings of betrayal. But more than 5million have backed it in a petition.

Under this plan, if the Government has not passed a deal, it would have to stage a vote on a no-deal Brexit two sitting days before the scheduled date of departure – early April.

If MPs refuse to authorise no-deal, the Prime Minister would be required to halt Brexit by revoking Article 50.

The motion, tabled by the SNP's Joanna Cherry, has been signed by 33 MPs including Conservative former attorney general Dominic Grieve, Liberal Democrat leader Sir Vince Cable, Labour's Ben Bradshaw and all 11 members of The Independent Group.

No deal

Pure Brexit, favoured by hardliners – and the legal default if no deal is agreed. No trade terms and no transition. Chaos widely predicted.

Backed by Conservative MPs John Baron, David Amess, Martin Vickers and Stephen Metcalfe, the motion proposes leaving the European Union without a deal on April 12.

Revoke Article 50 instead of no deal

There are two similar 'revoke Article 50' plans.

Under this plan, the Government is called on to "urgently" bring forward any legislation needed to revoke Article 50 "in the event that the House fails to approve any withdrawal agreement four days before the end of the Article 50 period".

It has been signed by 28 MPs, including the SNP's Angus Brendan MacNeil and Tory MP Ken Clarke.

A new customs union

Tabled by Labour's MP for Stoke-on-Trent Central Gareth Snell, this motion simply states that it should be the Government's objective to implement a trade agreement including a customs union with the EU. It mirrors an amendment to the Trade Bill secured by Labour peers in the House of Lords.

EEA/EFTA without customs union

A motion tabled by Conservative MP George Eustice – who quit as agriculture minister this month to fight for Brexit – proposes remaining within the EEA and rejoining EFTA, but remaining outside a customs union with the EU.

The motion was also signed by Conservative MPs including former minister Nicky Morgan and head of the Brexit Delivery Group Simon Hart.

Unilateral right of exit from backstop

The same four Tory MPs, as well as Andrew Percy and Neil Parish, have also backed a motion to leave the EU on May 22 with Mrs May's Withdrawal Agreement amended to allow the UK to unilaterally exit the Northern Ireland backstop.

Consent of devolved institutions

Backed by SNP MPs including Ian Blackford, Kirsty Blackman and Stephen Gethins, this motion requires an agreement that the UK will not leave without a deal, and that no action for leaving the EU will be taken without a consent motion passed in both the Scottish Parliament and the Welsh Assembly.

'Contingent preferential arrangements'

A group of Conservative MPs, including Marcus Fysh, Steve Baker and Priti Patel, have signed a motion that calls for the Government to seek to agree preferential trade arrangements with the EU, in case the UK is unable to implement a Withdrawal Agreement with the bloc.

'Contingent reciprocal arrangements'

A similar group of Tory MPs have backed a proposal calling for the Government to "at least reciprocate the arrangements put in place by the EU and or its Member states to manage the period following the UK's departure from the EU", in case the UK is unable to implement a Withdrawal Agreement.

'Respect the referendum results'

A cross-party proposal, signed by 94 MPs including the Conservatives' Will Quince, Labour's Frank Field and the DUP's Nigel Dodds, urges the House to "reaffirm its commitment to honour the result of the referendum that the UK should leave the European Union".

Stop MPs hijacking Commons business

This motion is on the agenda to spike the guns of the MPs taking control, rather than direct the way forward on Brexit.

Brexiteers including Sir William Cash and John Redwood want to make it a rule of the Commons that MPs cannot take control of the timetable from the government.

Meanwhile… Theresa May's plan is (separately) still on the table

Takes us out of the single market, customs union and European Court of Justice. If no trade deal is signed by December 2020 the Backstop would be triggered, keeping the UK in a customs union to prevent a hard border in Ireland.

How will Speaker Bercow choose what MPs vote on?

The Speaker decides which have sufficient support.

This can include volume or breadth of support (like amendments) but no hard and fast rule.

Sources say the whole object of the exercise is to allow a range of options, so the Speaker getting rid of too many would be self-defeating. But he's relished rows before.

Will MPs get a free vote?

Nothing's confirmed. But MPs on both sides have been urging Jeremy Corbyn and Theresa May to give them a free vote.

If it is whipped, both leaders face the prospect of a string of resignations by MPs who won't back the party line.

Critics argue it'll defeat the entire point of MPs are forced into making a choice depending on what their leader wants.

Does Theresa May have to listen?

No. A Parliamentary source said: "It doesn't change the law – it's more an exploration of what the House wants to do."

Despite huge political pressure the PM has indicated these votes are only "advisory" and she will not give a "blank cheque" by promising to honour them.

Mrs May has also said she could not something that is against the Tory manifesto, like a customs union.

That's despite (a) the Tory manifesto not having a Commons majority, and (b) the PM U-turning on vast aspects of it.

If the votes are ignored, Tory rebel Nick Boles warned MPs could take the next step of legislating against Theresa May's will.

Mr Boles said: "If, ultimately, the Government refuses to listen to what Parliament has voted for then we will look to bring forward a Bill."

What if no option gets a majority?

This is quite possible.

Becuase MPs aren't ranking their choices, all or no options could get an overall majority (326 votes) in the Commons.

That could spark calls for a re-run.

What happens next?

The MPs have already decided their next step – to take control of the Commons a second time on Monday 1 April.

Under their plan, there will be another set of indicative votes at 6pm next Monday.

This is thought to be an opportunity to refine the options and hold preferential votes – where MPs number their choices 1, 2 and so on – to narrow down what people want.

This should be the main event. One whip told the FT: "Group stages are on Wednesday and the play-offs are Monday."

Could Theresa May's deal still pass?

Yes. Downing Street refused to rule out bringing back Theresa May's deal for a third vote on Thursday.

It was held back due to lack of support, but since then, Tory ringleader Jacob Rees-Mogg has indicated he will back it.

However, the PM's DUP allies were refusing to budge, with MPs blasting "scare tactics" and sources telling Sky News they'd prefer a long extension to her deal.

So the fear of indicative votes has brought out more support for the deal. But it's still in no way certain.

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