Tuesday, 22 Oct 2019

Tory turmoil:Farage set for huge election victory if Boris makes crucial error with Brexit

Boris Johnson has faced significant opposition to his Brexit plans since becoming Prime Minister and has had to deal with the success of the Brexit Party and tactics of Remainers. During an interview with Express.co.uk, political scientist and polling expert John Curtice revealed Boris Johnson may be defeated by Brexit Party leader Nigel Farage in an election. Sir John explained that if Boris fails to deliver Brexit before October 31 and then calls a general election, those that supported the Tory party will quickly switch to Nigel Farage’s party.

However, the polling guru added that if Boris delivers a kind of Brexit on time, the Tories could expect a large majority in Parliament.

Sir John said: “So Jo Swinson is providing Boris Johnson with a potential opportunity.

“But it does, therefore, rest on his ability to squeeze the Brexit Party vote.

“Boris Johnson had a measure of success on that during the backend of July when he became Prime Minister.

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“The Brexit Party vote fell such that therefore the Tories have been enjoying something like a six or seven-point lead over Labour in the polls.

“The difficulty however is what we do know is that, certainly if voters are true to their word is that if we end up in a situation where we have not left by the 31st of October then a number of voters who have switched from the Brexit Party to the Conservative say they would switch back again.

“Hypothetically at least, the Conservatives could find themselves backed down to 25 percent in the polls or even lower.

“We would then be heading for a substantially hung Parliament.”

“Conversely if we have an election after Brexit has been delivered that is the scenario that is by far the most desirable for the Prime Minister.

“The polls suggest even those that are currently supporting the Brexit Party would vote for the Conservatives.

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“You could then open up a very substantial Conservative lead and a substantial restoration in conservative fortunes and then the Tories can look forward to an overall majority.

“Much ultimately rests on the Prime Minister’s ability to get a deal because we know he can’t get no deal through the House of Commons.

“The question is has the performance of Boris Johnson lately reduced his chances of achieving the objective that would seem to be the path that is most likely to give him the safe overall majority that he craves.”

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